World can relax coronavirus COVID-19 lockdown only after vaccine found: Study

Amid uncertainty on the relaxation of coronavirus COVID-19 lockdown across the nations, a study has revealed that untill a vaccine is found to cure the deadly pandemic, restrictions should remain in place. The virus has brought the world to a standstill as people are confined to their homes.

Researchers from the University of Hong Kong have studied the coronavirus cases in China and have come to this conclusion. According to them, nations which are contemplating the gradual relaxation of the lockdown have been warned that doing so would increase the risk of a resurgence of coronavirus.

To prove this, 41 Chinese provinces, that were majorly impacted by the virus, has been studied. The report said that due to the strict implementation of lockdown in China, the rate of infection was low. However, after the Chinese government's decision to withdraw lockdown, the risk of infection returning has increased because now with the opening of schools, colleges and factories, people are coming in contact with each other again.

According to the study, "The first wave of COVID-19 outside of Hubei has abated because of aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, given the substantial risk of viral reintroduction, particularly from overseas importation, close monitoring is needed to inform strategies against a potential second wave to achieve an optimal balance between health and economic protection."

"As COVID-19 continues to spread globally, escalating case importation from overseas or residual infected seeds within China (despite the almost 2-month-long containment policy nationwide), coupled with the resumption of economic activities, the second wave of COVID-19 appears probable. Thus, we simulated the potential consequences of relaxing restrictions in anticipation of a recrudescence of infections," added the study.

It also added, "Containment measures based on isolation and contact tracing will eventually fail if case exportation continues to grow exponentially, which seems probable given that local transmission has already been established in many large countries, including the USA and most European countries."

"A second wave of COVID-19 transmission is possible because of viral reintroduction (particularly international importation—eg, from Italy or elsewhere in Europe, Iran, USA, and other rapidly burgeoning secondary epicentres22) that has been exponentially increasing since March 2020, as well as viral transmissibility that might rebound with the gradual resumption of economic activities, and thus normal levels of social mixing. Close monitoring of the instantaneous effective reproduction number and real-time tuning of policy interventions to ensure a manageable second wave remains the over-riding public health priority," it further added.

Thus proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping a control on the infection is likely to be the optimal strategy until effective vaccines become widely available, despite the fact that control policies, including social distancing, behavioural change, and public awareness, will probably be maintained for some time.

The study is a warning for those countries that had put lockdown in the early days of virus infection and now they are thinking of relaxing it. A similar warning was given in the report of the prestigious Imperial College in London, which stated that if the lockdown was tightened without a vaccine preparation, the virus would return and kill millions. According to Imperial College, even if the first vaccine trial was successful, it would take at least 18 months to come to the market and until then the world has no choice but to stay in lockdown.