Retail inflation jumps to 4.62% in October due to high food prices

BENGALURU: India's retail inflation rate rose to 4.62% in October, driven by higher food prices, the government said on Wednesday.

Annual retail inflation in October was higher compared with 3.99% in the previous month and analysts' forecasts.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a retail inflation rate of 4.25% for October.

RUPA REGE NITSURE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, L&T FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, MUMBAI

"This was expected given the spikes in vegetables, meat & fish and egg prices due to disruption in transportation caused by excessive and unpredictable rains. Inflation in pulses too is on the higher side due to demand-supply mismatch."

"However, core inflation has collapsed to 3.44% in October versus 4.01% in September due to broad-based weakness in demand. While the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) will continue to provide comfort on the liquidity front, it makes sense to take a pause in the rate-cutting cycle."

"The need of the hour is to boost investment confidence at the individual sector level through corrective measures and a fiscal boost. India needs to focus on growth and arrest the deflationary trends."

MADHAVI ARORA, ECONOMIST, EDELWEISS SECURITIES, MUMBAI

"We think the current underlying growth-inflation mix continues to be favourable for counter-cyclical monetary stance."

"The domestic demand state, as reflected in various activity indicators, has weakened further in recent months, while fragile external growth backdrop convolutes the domestic slowdown further. We think the monetary accommodation has further steam of 50-65bps cut more in the cycle, contingent on data outcomes."

"We will closely watch out for the evolution of inflation amid various domestic and global idiosyncrasies, and fiscal fragilities that could impact the MPC's (Monetary Policy Committee's) reaction function."