India's oil import bill likely to dip 35% in FY'16

New Delhi: India's crude oil import bill is likely to dip by 35 percent to USD 73 billion this fiscal as global energy prices slumped on weak demand.

India had imported 189.43 million tons of crude oil in 2014-15 for USD 112744 billion or Rs 6.87 lakh crore. This fiscal the imports are projected at 188.23 million tons, almost the same level as last year.

According to data available from Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, the country imported 114.9 million tons of crude during April- October for USD 43.6 billion.

Going by the trend, PPAC projected an import of 188.23 million tons for USD 73.28 billion or Rs 4.73 lakh crore.

Officials said while the April-October 2015 imports are based on actuals and for November 2015 to March 2016, the imports are estimated at USD 55 per barrel of oil and an exchange rate of Rs 65 to a US dollar.

An USD one per barrel change in crude price impacts the net import bill by Rs 3,513 crore or USD 0.54 billion. Similarly, Re one variation in exchange rate impacts the import bill by Rs 2,972 crores (USD 0.46 billion).

The basket of crude oil that India buys averaged USD 55.79 per barrel during the first half of current fiscal as against USD 84.16 a barrel average in full 2014-15 fiscal. The Indian basket had averated USD 105.52 per barrel in 2013-14.

Besides crude oil, India also imported 16.5 million tons of petroleum products for USD 6.5 billion in April-October, according to the PPAC data. This compared to 12 million tons of import for USD 8 billion in the same period last fiscal.

Petroleum product exports too declined to 33.6 million tons in April-October from 37.1 million tons a year ago. India earned USD 17.3 billion this fiscal from exports as compared to USD 32.2 billion last year.

The growth in consumption was led by 7 percent to 42.6 million tons. LPG demand rose to 10.9 million tons from 10 million tons in 2014 while petrol demand was up 14.5 percent to 12.6 million tons.

Fuel consumption registered a robust growth of 17.5 percent in October to 15.2 million tons. Except for kerosene, all other products recorded a positive growth.