There Is A Risk Of 'Armed Confrontation' Between India And China, Warns US

New Delhi: The relations between India and China will "remain strained" due to their lethal clash in Ladakh's Galwan Valley in 2020, said the "Annual Threat Assessment" report of the US Intelligence Community. The report, which was released on Wednesday (March 8, 2023), also stated that the "expanded military postures" of both the countries along the Line of Actual control (LAC) elevate the risk of an "armed confrontation" between the two nuclear powers.

"While India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, relations will remain strained in the wake of the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in decades," it said.

"The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US persons and interests, and calls for U.S. intervention," it added. 

"Previous standoffs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the potential to escalate swiftly," the report said.

It is notable that ties between India and China have nosedived since the 2020 Galwan incident. Even last year, the security forces of the two countries had clashed in Arunachal Pradesh's Tawang after the Chinese side tried to intrude. 

India 'More Likely' To Give Military Response To Pakistan Under PM Narendra Modi

The US report also said that under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is "more likely" than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations. 

"Crises between India and Pakistan are of particular concern because of the risk of an escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed states," it said.

"New Delhi and Islamabad probably are inclined to reinforce the current calm in their relationship following both sides’ renewal of a cease-fire along the Line of Control in early 2021. However, Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations," the report said.

"Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in (Jammu and) Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints," it read.

It is notable India has responded to the recent Uri and Pulwama terror attacks -- perpetrated by Pakistani terrorists -- through surgical strikes.