What does BJP-PDP breakup mean for Jammu and Kashmir? Here is the political number game

New Delhi: In a major development, the BJP on Tuesday ended its alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led by Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti and pulled out of the government in the state, saying it had become "untenable" to continue in the coalition. "It has become untenable for the BJP to continue in the alliance government," Bharatiya Janata Party leader and party's J&K in-charge Ram Madhav told reporters.

"Three years ago BJP formed a government in Jammu and Kashmir with the PDP with some goals. But now it has become untenable for the BJP to continue in the alliance government," Madhav told the media here.

He said the decision was taken after consulting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah.

"Keeping in mind the larger national interest of India`s integrity and security... in order to bring in control the situation prevailing in the state. It is time that the reins of power in state be handed over to the Governor (NN Vohra)," the BJP leader said.

He added that terrorism and radicalisation had increased in Kashmir.  

With the BJP pulling out of the PDP-led coalition government in J&K, the Mehbooba Mufti government has now come in minority and the situation now leads to a possibility of President's Rule being imposed in the state. As per the current tally in the 89-seat J&K Assembly, PDP has 28 seats while BJP has 25. 

The main opposition party, the National Conference has 15 seats while the Congress has 12 and the others have seven seats.

In the 89-member assembly, a party or a coalition requires at least 45 seats to be able to form the government in the state.    

Here is the party-wise standing in 89-member J&K Assembly

1. PDP 28

2. BJP 25

3. J&K National Conference (J&KNC ) 15

4. Indian National Congress (INC) 12

5. Independent & Others (IND) 6

6. Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M) 1

7. J&K PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC FRONT (PDF) 1

8. Nominated 2
 
Total: 89

Several days after the assembly elections in December 2015, which recorded one of the highest voter turnouts in Jammu and Kashmir, the PDP led by Mehbooba Mufti emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats.

BJP had managed to win 25 seats. Omar Abdullah-led National Conference bagged 15 while Congress 12.

Though, the PDP and BJP agreed that Mufti will be the chief minister for the full six-year term, there were concern over whether the two parties will be able to function together given their vast ideological differences on critical issues like Article 370, which gives special status to Jammu and Kashmir State, and the AFPSA law, which shields soldiers from prosecution in conflict zones.

BJP has stood for the abrogation of Article 370, but PDP pushed for greater autonomy than what is available under the current constitutional scheme. BJP backs AFSPA as necessary to battling the low-intensity insurgency in Kashmir, but PDP wants its withdrawal.