Yogendra Yadav vs Prashant Kishor: Whose Election Prediction Hit The Mark?

The Lok Sabha election results came as a shocker to many, as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to secure the crucial 272 seats needed for a majority.None of the exit polls accurately predicted the number of seats the party might win. However, Indian activist, psephologist, and politician Yogendra Yadav's seat estimations closely matched the actual results announced on Tuesday. On the other hand, political strategist Prashant Kishor’s forecasts did not even come close to tomorrow’s mandate for the BJP but fared true for Congress.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP, which secured 282 seats in 2014 and 303 in the 2019 election, won 240 seats this time.  

Yogendra Yadav’s Predictions For 2024 Polls  

Since the beginning of the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has coined the slogan ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’. However, in his prediction videos, Yadav quashed these claims and labelled them as far-fetched.  

"While the BJP's promise of 400 seats was tenuous, it will be challenging for them to win even 300 seats. (400 paar wali baat to total hawaii thi, 300 paar karna bhi BJP k liye namumkin hoga)." He further said that the BJP will struggle to surpass 260 seats and that reaching 300 seats will be nearly impossible.  

Yogendra Yadav also anticipated a significant impact from the INDIA bloc.  

Predictions were as follows:  

BJP: 240–260 seats  

NDA: 35–45 seats  

Congress: 85–100 seats  

INDIA bloc: 120–135 seats

PK's Predictions For 2024 Polls  

Aligning with most of the exit poll claims, Indian political strategist Prashant Kishor, often referred to as PK, had earlier forecasted a decisive win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming 18th Lok Sabha elections.  

During his interactions with the media, Kishor conveyed strong confidence that the ruling party would achieve a majority and establish the next government independently, without needing its coalition partners. However, the actual vote counts told a different story.  

Kishor thought the BJP would probably get the same or more seats than they did in 2019, when they got 303 seats. He mentioned that although the BJP might not get to 370 seats or the NDA's goal of over 400 seats, they should aim for at least 272 seats to have a majority. Kishor predicted that Congress would get fewer than 100 seats, which seems accurate with vote counting showing the party getting around 98–99 seats.