With eye on 2019 polls, Narendra Modi-Amit Shah may spring surprises in Cabinet reshuffle

New Delhi: All eyes are on cabinet reshuffle which is around the corner. Narendra Modi-led NDA government emerging stronger after establishing supremacy in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, people are expecting some major surprises up the sleeves of the prime minister and BJP chief Amit Shah. Jagdeesh Chandra, CEO, ZMCL, is here with his in-depth analysis to decode the much talked about crucial reshuffle which is likely to have a major impact on forthcoming assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

Q. Will reshuffle happen on September 2 or Modi and Shah would look for some other auspicious day?

JC: Today, the entire country is discussing about the cabinet reshuffle. Informed sources say that the reshuffle would take place on September 2. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a 3-hour long discussion with BJP Amit Shah on this matter and they have finalised the shape of the new cabinet. Everything is ready. They are just waiting for the signal from President House.

Q. What would be the scale of reshuffle? Will there be any merger of ministries?

JC: Sources say the reshuffle would affect around 24 ministers. In total, the cabinet will be reshuffled between 25 ministers. As far as merging few ministries for better governance and reducing the count of ministers are concerned, Narendra Modi is definitely thinking on this … people are speculating that fertiliser and agriculture ministries can be merged, railways and surface transport may be made one and similarly planning and programme implementation may be brought under one umbrella. If a major change happens in this area, that would be in railways and surface transport. The surface transport minister is Nitin Gadkari who is believed to be efficient and result oriented. No wonder if both the ministries are merged together.

Q. Will Suresh Prabhu leave Railway Ministry and will Nitin Gadkari replace him?

Suresh Prabhu has introduced a new concept after the two rail accidents: Concept of Accountability and Arun Jaitley has appreciated the concept… but Prime Minister didn’t accept his resignation. It seems PM will keep him in the cabinet.

Q. Will Shiv Sena lose its sheen in this cabinet reshuffle?

JC: As far as Shiv Sena is concerned, it will lose its relevance and bargaining power because there is every likelihood that AIADMK will join the government. They have got 37 MPs in Lok Sabha and 13 in Rajya Sabha. In such situation, Shiv Sena will not be in a position to bargain.

Q. What would be the role of Amit Shah in the cabinet?

Amit Shah is all-in-one… The most impressive point is PM has complete trust in him. Pm has given the responsibility of winning 2019 elections to Shah… After Amit Shah was elected in Rajya Sabha, media and people in BJP started speculating that Shah will be included in the cabinet. Shah himself ruled out his becoming the home minister. He wants to fulfil his responsibility as BJP chief. Some people say that he may be made the leader of BJP in Rajya Sabha.

Q. What would be parameters of cabinet reshuffle?

JC: This time, the only target for Modi and Amit Shah is to win the 2019 elections and corner 350 seats for BJP. The biggest parameter after the outcome of 2019 elections is your performance and your delivery.

Q. Will some ministers be made Governors?

JC: Definitely. When a reshuffle of such a scale happens in any party, people are adjusted, people are rearranged. Few ministers will become governors while few MPs will join the government. A relevant source has said that 7 governors are likely to get appointed. Kalraj Mishra, Lalji Tandon and Vijay Kumar Malhotra could be among them. RSS is to decide on names. As far as RSS is concerned, there is a great coordination between RSS and BJP. Broadly, it can be deduced that 7-8 governors will be affected after this reshuffle.

Q. What is the future of JDU in NDA? Will Nitish get Deputy PM post in 2019?

JC: A significant aspect of this reshuffle is that Nitish Kumar’s JDU is joining Modi government in the centre. Both the parties have mutually agreed on one post each of a Cabinet Minister and Minister of State. RPC Singh, who is a retired IAS officer and MP from Rajya Sabha may get a cabinet ministry while Santosh Kumar may be considered for MoS. Nitish Kumar clearly feels that no one has the capability to challenge the leadership of Narendra Modi for next 5-7 years. People are speculating that Nitish may leave Patna for Delhi and could take the oath of deputy Prime Minister with Narendra Modi.

Q. Will there be sizeable representation of states going for elections?

JC: Definitely, reshuffle brings an opportunity to reward states due for polls. Then Karnataka, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are likely to get berths in cabinet. There are two cabinet ministers from Karnataka … Sharan Gauda and Anant Kumar… there is a possibility that Anant Kumar gets an important portfolio. As far as Karnataka is concerned, BJP and Amit Shah believe that the party is going to form the government. But there is disagreement in ground reality. According to a survey, if elections happen today, BJP will be limited to only 65-70 seats. That means it is not easy to defeat Siddaramaiah, chief minister from Congress. That’s why it is possible that BJP focuses hard on Karnataka in coming time. BJP may appoint one more cabinet minister from Karnataka. For Gujarat, one minister from Gujarat may be upgraded and one may be replaced to set the tone right. Similarly, Himachal is also going for polls. Health Minister Nadda is from Himachal and he is very active. It is believed that Nadda will be projected as a chief ministerial candidate and he may be replaced with Anurag Thakur in the ensuing reshuffle.

Q. Will Dharmendra Pradhan, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, Piyush Goyal and Jayant Sinha be elevated to cabinet minister?

JC: As far as Dharmendra Pradhan is concerned, he has done well in petroleum ministry. For the first time, petroleum ministry is under supervision of Prime Minister. The way Ujjawala Scheme has been implemented by Pradhan, it is likely to garner votes for BJP in the coming elections in a big way. It looks for sure that Dharmendra Pradhan will be elevated to cabinet minister. As far as Piyush Goyal is concerned, power corridors are abuzz that he will be made finance minister while Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore may also be considered for promotion. Sinha is handling civil aviation which is realising the dreams of Prime Minister… a common man gets an opportunity to fly… people say that Sinha may be given an independent charge of a ministry related to economic affairs. A surprising speculation is - MoS finance from Rajasthan Arjun Meghwal may be elevated to cabinet minister.

Q. Will information and broadcasting ministry stay with firebrand minister Smriti Irani? Will Modi assign any important responsibility to her in 2019 Lok Sabha elections?

JC: The way Prime Minister has once again given the responsibility of Information and Broadcasting to Smriti Irani, one thing is clear that she will there to stay till 2019. As far as her relevance in UP is concerned, Modi and Shah, both know that she is one of the most popular face in UP. In 2019 elections, she will take on Gandhi family in Amethi, Raebareli.

Q. Will any CM from BJP ruled state get a berth in cabinet?

JC: The day Modi had taken oath for PM, I have been listening that chief ministers from Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh will be summoned to centre or people close to Modi and Shah will become chief minister. Many campaigns were run. But nothing happened. It is clear that elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh will be contested in leadership of Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh respectively. It is also speculated that Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis may be called on to centre and be given portfolio of defence or external affairs. Speculations are there but I don’t think Fadnavis will leave Maharashtra for New Delhi.

Q. Will Arun Jaitley be relieved from Finance Ministry and will be given defence ministry full time?

Arun Jaitley is the biggest mystery of the Narendra Modi government… Jaitley has complete control over the power corridor. Today, the biggest challenge in this cabinet reshuffle is whether Jaitley should be given finance ministry or defence ministry or whether he should be entrusted with the responsibility of both. In this government, Jaitley has the biggest say after Amit Shah. One ministry may go from his sleeves in this reshuffle.