Saffron surge sweeps UP again, here's what BJP victory means under Yogi Adityanath

NEW DELHI: Led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath from the front and powered by the 'Modi wave', the ruling BJP has recreated history as it is all set to return to power for a second term in Uttar Pradesh as the saffron party is heading towards a landslide victory. The BJP has also shored up 44.6 per cent of the vote - a significant 5 per cent improvement over the 2017 elections.

While CM Yogi was confident of BJP winning 300 plus seats from the beginning of the high-stakes election, the opposition’s desperate attempt to latch onto the farmers' protest - highlighting the anger among the Jats and farmers in the western belt —failed miserably too.

Even as the counting of votes continues in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is on its course to retain power in the politically crucial state with Yogi Adityanath set to become chief minister for a second straight term — breaking a 37-year-old record in the state. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has himself won from the Gorakhpur seat by over one lakh votes. 

Trends coming from Uttar Pradesh indicate that the BJP is leading on 263 seats while the SP-RLD alliance was a distant second, leading on 135 seats. On the other hand, the BSP and the Congress struggled to touch the double-digit mark. These keenly contested assembly elections were seen as a big litmus test for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government which, people believed was battling the anti-incumbency factor along with a reinvigorated Samajwadi Party after it stitched a formidable alliance with smaller parties, including the Rashtriya Lok Dal.

Exit poll predictions come true for BJP

The exit polls have predicted a clear victory for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh though many said that the saffron party will not be  able to repeat its 2017 performance when it won a whopping over 300 seats in the 403-member Assembly.

While these polls are seen as a direct contest between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party, they will also decide the fate of the Congress and Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party, which are on the verge of facing an existential crisis in the state.

What's the significance of the BJP's victory in UP?

Uttar Pradesh is home to about a fifth of India`s 1.35 billion people and sends the most legislators to Parliament of any state. The victory in the northern state has come despite the state and Narendra government`s much-criticised handling of Covid-19, high unemployment, and anger over farm reforms that PM Modi cancelled last year after protests.

The BJP has long predicted it would retain the state because of policies such as free staples for the poor during the pandemic, a crackdown on crime, and its popularity among the Hindu majority reinforced by the construction of the Ram temple after the landmark SC verdict. It has long been assumed in Indian politics that without winning Uttar Pradesh and the neighbouring state of Bihar, no party or coalition has much hope of securing a majority in Parliament. The BJP has been in power in both.

For decades, Uttar Pradesh was a stronghold of the main opposition Congress party, but it has been unable to stem a slide in its popularity over recent years. A win in Uttar Pradesh would be a seal of approval for monk-politician Yogi Adityanath, who was surprisingly chosen as chief minister for the state five years ago and is seen as a future prime ministerial candidate for the BJP. 

If BJP registers a big victory finally, it will be the first time since 1985 that a party would come to power in two consecutive elections in Uttar Pradesh. Yogi Adityanath, in all probability, will return as chief minister, making him UP's first Chief Minister in 37 years to do so. If this happens, Yogi Adityanath will also become the only chief minister of India’s largest state to get a renewed mandate after serving a full five-year term in office.

If Yogi becomes the Chief Minister, after 2007, he will be the first leader who contested the assembly elections as a CM candidate. A thumping win in UP will also have an impact on the political fortunes of the BJP in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.  

Issues that worked in BJP’s favour: 

Ram Mandir construction 

BJPs renewed focus on the construction of a grand Ram Mandir in the holy city of Ayodhya - the birthplace of Lord Ram - and the inauguration of Kashi Vishvanath Corridor that was projected as a rejuvenation of the ancient Kashi together seems to have touched the hearts of a majority of Hindus in the state. Clearly, the victory will further embolden the BJP’s Hindutva politics.

Firm control over law and order situation 

The ruling BJP has repeatedly attacked Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party - its principal challenger - over the poor law and order situation during Akhilesh Yadav’s tenure as CM. In their election rallies, from PM Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah to CM Yogi Adityanath, all repeatedly attacked both Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati of ''lawlessness'' during their tenures

'Bulldozer Baba' jibe

It seems that the ''bulldozer baba'' remark made by the Samajwadi Party has backfired. The BJP, however, decided to wear it as a ‘badge of honour’ and the bulldozer was seen as an affirmation of its government’s “tough stand on criminals” and “high on development” image. It may be recalled that the Yogi Adityanath administration has widely used bulldozers to demolish illegal buildings constructed by criminals, which made Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav call the CM “bulldozer baba".

BJP’s tough stand on Hijab row

Amid the hijab ban row in Karnataka, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said that he has no objection to anybody wearing whatever dress one wishes on a personal level, but, he stressed that one cannot force the beliefs of one religion or community on the entire nation.  

The 'Double Engine' pitch

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first to have coined the term 'double engine ki sarkaar,' but it was CM Yogi who used it more than him. PM Modi came up with the expression as he drew an analogy between a train powered by two locomotives and the BJP government ruling in the centre as well as in the state. Both the Opposition and the ruling BJP used the 'Double Engine' slogan to attack each other during the hectic poll campaigning.

Free ration scheme 

During the election campaign, CM Yogi had made a blistering attack on previous state governments, accusing them of secretly colluding with the ‘khadyan’ (ration) mafia to usurp the grains supplied by the Cente for the welfare of poor and the downtrodden. The CM made a sharp attack on his political rivals during the launch of a campaign for free distribution of food grains to 15 crore poor.

Operation Ganga & evacuation of Indians

In a majority of rallies in Uttar Pradesh, top BJP leaders took the opportunity to mention how due to “Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and international stature”, India managed to safely evacuate its citizens stranded in war-hit Ukraine under Operation Ganga.

Backlash over SP’s withdrawal of cases against terrorist 

BJP and PM Modi spared no efforts to launch a full-frontal attack on the Samajwadi Party over the death sentences handed down to 38 convicts in the Ahmedabad bombings case. "Samajwadi Party government in Uttar Pradesh had sought to withdraw cases against several terrorists," PM Modi reportedly said during his election rally in UP’s Hardoi. This seems to have whipped up the nationalist sentiments among the majority of traditional BJP voters. 

Opposition politics over Covid vaccination

Taking a dig at Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav, the BJP top leadership said, "BJP ki vaccine and Modi Vaccine is now saving lives of crores of people across the country". This was in reference to the controversial claim made by the Samajwadi Party leaders, including Akhilesh Yadav, that it was a BJP vaccine and even allegedly spread disinformation about it triggering side-effects like impotency.

Kairana exodus & Muzaffarnagar riots 

The exodus of Hindus from Kairana became a big issue in these elections and the BJP said that “no one will forgive the SP for it.’’ Kairana remains a sensitive town since 2017 when BJP leaders, including then MP Hukum Singh, had alleged the “exodus” of Hindu families following alleged threats and harassment fro the dominant Muslims of the area. Meanwhile, UP CM Yogi Adityanath also accused the Samajwadi Party of instigating the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots and helping culprits get away with the crime under its watch. 

Incentives for farmers

Notwithstanding the people’s anger over now-repealed central farm laws, various central initiatives like increasing MSP, expansion of Kisan Credit Card, improvement in the insurance scheme, provision of Rs 3,000 pension were widely welcomed by the small and marginal farmers of UP.

Welfare schemes 

The implementation of several central government schemes and distribution of free ration, laptops for students, uniform allowance for children possibly tipped the scales in favour of the BJP.

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