How hard will fourth wave of Covid-19 hit India? Here's what experts feel

New Delhi: After a brief sigh of relief, several parts of the world, including Europe and Asia, are witnessing a dramatic surge in Covid-19 cases. This rising trend leads the world to wonder if another possible wave of coronavirus infection is likely.

India has so far seen three waves of Covid-19, including the second deadly surge driven by the perilous Delta variant of the virus. However, Indian experts believe that another such is highly unlikely unless another such variant appears.

Amid reports of the possible fourth wave of Covid-19, here’s what various experts say about India’s preparedness for another spike.

Fourth wave in India

A study, by the Mathematics and Statistics department of the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, predicted that another fourth wave of Covid-19 is likely in June this year.

Though the research was not peer-reviewed, it said that the wave would not cast a strain on the health infrastructure of India and will be less dangerous that the previous ones.

Highly immunized population

In a recent press conference, NITI Ayog member Dr VK Paul clarified that India is prepared for another possible wave as a large section of the population is both naturally immunised as well has received both doses of Covid vaccines.

New variants unlikely

Eminent Virologist and Former Professor, Christian Medical College (CMC )Vellore Dr T Jacob John on Saturday said that the chances of the fourth COVID-19 wave are low unless another variant erupts.

 "There is no scientific, epidemiological reason to predict a fourth COVID-19 wave but nobody can predict that it will not happen. I can say the probability is extremely low but it is important to be vigilant and cautious,” said John

“There is a need to keep looking at the viruses and their genetic sequences and see if there are any new variants appearing and if any variants are overtaking Omicron locally in more places,” he added.

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