COVID-19 third wave will end in April, poll rallies can be super spreader, warns IIT-Kanpur Professor

Kanpur: Professor Manindra Agarwal of IIT Kanpur has said that the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic will end by April. The scientist, however, warned that rallies during elections can prove to be a super spreader for Corona infection, as it is not easy to follow the Covid guidelines in such gatherings.

Prof Agarwal said that as a large number of people reach the election rallies without following the guidelines, the risk of infection increases to a great extent. In such a situation, there is a need to be careful. If there are rallies, the transition can pick up ahead of time.

According to Prof Agarwal, who bases his predictions of the epidemic on the basis of his mathematical model, the third wave will come in India in January and in March, 1.8 lakh cases can come daily.

"It will be a matter of relief that only 1 in 10 will need a hospital. Two lakh beds will be needed in the middle of March," he said. He further said that 80 per cent of the population in Africa and India is below 45 years of age. Natural immunity is up to 80 per cent in both countries.

In both countries, the delta variant has been due to mutants. Like South Africa, India is also less likely to have a major impact, he claimed. A total of 1,700 cases of Omicron variant of coronavirus have been detected across 23 states and Union Territories so far, out of which 639 have recovered or migrated, according to the Union health ministry's data updated on Monday. 

Maharashtra has recorded the maximum number of 510 cases, followed by Delhi (351), Kerala (156), Gujarat (136), Tamil Nadu (121) and Rajasthan (120). India's Covid tally rose to 3,49,22,882 with 33,750 fresh cases, while the active cases increased to 1,45,582, according to the data updated at 8 am.

The death toll climbed to 4,81,893 with 123 more fatalities, the data showed. 

The active cases have increased to 1,45,582 comprising 0.42 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate was recorded at 98.20 per cent, the health ministry said. An increase of 22,781 cases has been recorded in the active COVID-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours.

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