Covid-19 fourth wave possible in Mumbai between July to Sep: BMC Commissioner

Fourth Covid-19 wave: As coronavirus cases continue to show a fluctuating trend, the threat of a fourth Covid-19 wave still looms in India. While many experts are divided about whether or not India will witness the fourth wave of Covid-19 like its neighbour China, which is reeling from the worst coronavirus outbreak and other nations like North Korea, Europe and the US. Amid these reports, Mumbai’s Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) Commissioner said that Mumbai is likely to witness a fourth Covid-19 wave between July and September, however, it won’t be as intense as the previous waves. The officer made the observations during the launch event of his book ‘Iqbal Singh Chahal-Covid Warrior.’

Speaking to Times of India, Iqbal Chahal, Commissioner of Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) said, “IIT Kanpur has predicted the fourth wave in July which may peak in September. Going by the fourth wave in Europe, I believe this wave will be very mild and won’t affect normal life. Lockdowns are a thing of the past for Mumbai now.”

Chahal further added that even if the fourth wave hits Mumbai, it won’t be as dangerous as the second wave and would not put overwhelming pressure on India’s health system.

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No fourth wave, said ICMR

Meanwhile, amid the rising cases in India, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) earlier this month said that recent data did not indicate the onset of the fourth wave of coronavirus infections.

The current spike in the number of daily Covid-19 cases in India cannot be termed as the fourth wave of the pandemic, Samiran Panda, Additional Director General of ICMR said.

IIT Kanpur fourth wave prediction

An IIT Kanpur study said the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India is likely to hit around June 22 and last for four months. The research was led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Department of Mathematics and Statistics.

The study, which remains to be peer-reviewed, recently published on the preprint repository MedRxiv, has used a statistical model to make the prediction and found that the possible new wave will peak from mid to late August.