Analysis: Was There A Modi Wave Or Not? What UP And Maharashtra Suggest

"Modi Wave" was possibly the biggest phenomenon that dominated the Indian elections for the past decade. The "Wave" or the "Leher" refers to a phenomenon that the voter sentiments are in favour of particular leader; no matter what happens, who fights the election on what issues, people will vote for that particular person's cult. 

This cult was very much evident during the 2014 Lok Sabha, 2017 Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Sabha and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The "Modi wave" sweeping the entire north Indian political arena. 

However, the 2024 Lok Sabha election results have shown something else - the change in voter mindset, especially in two states - Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. 

The results in these key states show a different picture from what many had expected. 

Uttar Pradesh: The Shifting Tides

Uttar Pradesh - the most important state when it comes to winning New Delhi - gave shocking results this time. The INDIA bloc, spearheaded by Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav and Congress' Rahul Gandhi, orchestrated a stunning performance, disrupting the BJP's stronghold. 

With a staggering 71 seats in 2014 and 62 in 2019, the BJP's grip on UP seemed unshakeable. However, as of 4 pm, the party was leading on only 33 seats, a stark contrast to the Samajwadi Party's 37 seats. This reversal marks a departure from the BJP's trend of clinching a majority on their own.

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's formidable reign, marked by two successive assembly victories, now faces a grim reality check. The SP's strategy, focusing on the PDA (Pichchde, Dalits, and Alpsankhyak), has evidently paid off. The exit polls, which predicted the NDA winning over 60 out of 80 seats, were proven wrong. Despite the BJP's confidence, bolstered by the Ram Mandir promise, the party trailed even in Faizabad, where the temple is located.

Maharashtra: The Realignment of Power

Maharashtra, another pivotal state, has witnessed a dramatic political realignment. Despite internal splits, Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have demonstrated their continued influence. Nine hours into vote counting, Thackeray's faction led in 9 seats and Pawar's NCP in 7. In contrast, the breakaway factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar managed 7 and 1 seats respectively. Overall, the INDIA bloc leads in 27 seats, while the BJP is trailing with 20.

The political landscape in Maharashtra has shifted more drastically than in any other state. In 2019, the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance won 41 out of 48 seats. However, the alliance fractured over the Chief Minister's post, leading Thackeray to form a government with the NCP and Congress. This coalition, known as the Maha Vikas Aghadi, faced subsequent turmoil with Eknath Shinde's defection to the BJP and Ajit Pawar's rebellion within the NCP. Despite these challenges, the INDIA bloc's resurgence is a testament to their enduring political clout.

The Big Picture: Beyond the Wave

The Modi government, with its leaders projecting confidence and planning for the long term, has faced a reality check. The ambitious slogan "Abki Baar, 400 Paar" fell short, and the party's declaration of independence from the RSS seems premature. The BJP's overconfidence has been met with unprecedented results, challenging the notion of an unwavering Modi wave.

As the dust settles, it is clear that the BJP's dominance is not as unassailable as previously thought. The party will need to reassess its strategies and perhaps lean more heavily on the RSS than before. The wave that was anticipated has not materialized, signaling a significant shift in the political dynamics of India.

The era of a guaranteed majority may be over for the BJP, prompting a period of introspection and recalibration. The results from Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra underscore the complexity and volatility of Indian politics, where past performance is no guarantee of future success.