Analysis: Rahul Gandhi's Disqualification Could Be A Blessing In Disguise For Congress

“Rahul Gandhi is out to materialise Mahatma Gandhi's dream. After 1947, Mahatma Gandhi wanted to dismantle Congress. Rahul Gandhi is doing the same.”

These were the words of a confident PM Narendra Modi in the year 2017, when he was leading the Bhartiya Janata Party's electoral march for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. These were the times when BJP party men, following their supreme leader's stand, ridiculed Rahul for being immature and a novice in politics, as someone who was unaware of the ground reality and posed no challenge to Narendra Modi. Rahul's every action – election speech, appearance and even disappearance from the public eye – were made fun of. The Congress leader, who is not really endowed with public speaking skills, was made a laughing stock. So much so, that the BJP kept dismissing him as a challenge or even a roadblock to PM Narendra Modi’s electoral ambitions. It wasn't only the BJP, but even the media and political pundits considered Rahul’s purported ineptitude the biggest reason for BJP's thumping victories in the last two Lok Sabha elections. The voters, too, seemed convinced by the BJP, media, and pundits on Gandhi.

In 2022, Rahul Gandhi tried to change this narrative. He sought to re-launch himself with the 3000-km Bharat Jodo Yatra, touted as the Congress’ biggest outreach programme in over a decade. The BJP dismissed the Kashmir-to-KanyaKumari march as another failed attempt at reviving the grand old party and Rahul Gandhi's yet another image-makeover exercise. Gandhi, however, surprised opponents, media and observers with the alacrity he showed at the yatra. He engaged podcasters and social media influencers like Samdish Bhatia, Kamya Jani Punjabi for interactions -- a strategy the BJP has been using since 2014 to strike a chord with the millennials. Gandhi bagged small but positive media coverage. By the time he and his supporters reached Delhi, there appeared a sense of rejuvenation and hope in the rank and file of the party. The yatra -- backed by the likes of Raghuram Rajan -- forced the BJP to take a second look at Gandhi. Instead of outright mockery, the BJP's attacks were measured and cautious.

Another effect of the yatra was seen in the BJP's all-guns-blazing attack on Rahul Gandhi when he accused the Narendra Modi government of misusing central agencies to suppress dissent, in England. The party's comebacks were uncharacteristically sharp, thus proving it takes Gandhi more seriously than it publicly admits.

Just when the BJP was focusing on the onslaught against Gandhi's allegedly 'anti-national' comments on foreign shores, a court decision changed the entire political narrative on its head. Rahul Gandhi was sentenced to two years in prison for making an apparent casteist remark in 2019. He was disqualified from the Lok Sabha the next day. The Centre and the BJP had no role in the disqualification. However, the public perception may not work like this.

The leaders of the Grand Old Party stand their best chance to build on Rahul Gandhi's disqualification and turn public perception of the Modi regime as 'undemocratic' and suppressive. On social media, pro-BJP handles have already started defending the government arguing their party had no 'locus-standi' on the matter.

A second major outcome of the decision could be a possible unity among the major Opposition parties. Aam Aadmi Party, Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress NCP, RJD, JDU and a few others have already condemned the action against Gandhi. More than that, it will increase their insecurities about the alleged use of central agencies by the government. The disqualification might serve as a moment to push Opposition parties towards the elusive anti-BJP alliance.

The disqualification, in its third outcome, can serve as Rahul Gandhi's moment of victimhood. This phenomenon has swayed public sentiments in favour of politicians -- Indira Gandhi (Tussle with Syndicate in 1969), Jayalalithaa (Battle for party chair with Janaki Ramachandran in 1988) and VP Singh (Shifted to Defence From Finance in 1987) etc.

All that Congress has lost is a single Lok Sabha seat. The BJP, on the other hand, has a lot to manage inside and outside Parliament.

Disclaimer: Views Expressed Are Personal Opinion Of The Writer.

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