Analysis: How Powerful Is Sachin Pilot In Rajasthan?

 Rajasthan Assembly Election 2023: The upcoming Assembly Elections in Rajasthan are set to be a challenging battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress. Both parties are facing internal conflicts, which overshadow the competition with their rivals. Sachin Pilot, the former Deputy Chief Minister of Congress, poses a significant challenge for the party. Meanwhile, Vasundhara Raje, a senior BJP leader, fights to maintain her presence in the state, despite being sidelined by party leaders in Delhi. Rumors suggest that Sachin Pilot, a prominent leader of the Gurjar community, may form his own party and leave Congress. However, the impact of this decision on Congress' fortunes in the December elections remains uncertain. The question arises: Is Pilot truly that powerful in Rajasthan?

1. Sachin Pilot's Influence: 40 Constituencies

Sachin Pilot's influence directly affects 40 constituencies in various districts, including Sawai Madhopur, Jaipur, Ajmer, Bhilwara, and more. These constituencies have a significant number of Gujjar voters who hold substantial power in determining election outcomes. If Pilot were to form a new party, both Congress and the BJP would face substantial losses.

2. Support from Big Leaders

Pilot enjoys the support of around 20 MLAs from diverse communities. These supporters can influence the results in 15 assembly seats, in addition to the 40 seats dominated by the Gujjar community.

The Catch: Potential MLA Defections

Currently, Pilot has the support of 22 legislators, including 8 Gujjar legislators. While the number may seem limited, Pilot's strong backing from the Gujjar community remains intact. Notable legislators supporting Pilot include Deependra Singh Shekhawat, Hemaram Chaudhary, Indraj Gurjar, and others.

3. Gujjar Support for Pilot and Discontent with BJP

Traditionally, the Gujjar community has supported the BJP, as the Meena community (a dominant ST community in Rajasthan) supports Congress. However, during the 2018 Assembly elections, the Gujjar community shifted its allegiance to the Congress, primarily due to Sachin Pilot. The community hoped for Pilot to become the Chief Minister, but he was appointed as Deputy Chief Minister instead, which further fueled their discontent.

4. Impact on Lok Sabha Elections

With the Lok Sabha elections approaching, the Congress is poised for a strong performance in Rajasthan. The results of the state elections are likely to influence the Lok Sabha elections as well. Sachin Pilot's emergence as a prominent leader and his connection with the Gujjar vote bank are crucial for the Congress. Out of the state's 25 parliamentary constituencies, 11 seats hold significant Gujjar influence. The Gujjar community constitutes a considerable portion of Rajasthan's population and voter base.

In conclusion, Sachin Pilot's role and influence in Rajasthan cannot be overlooked. His support base, particularly among the Gujjar community, and the potential formation of a new party could impact the fortunes of both Congress and the BJP in the upcoming elections.