Analysis: How Congress May Have Fallen Into BJP's Polarization Trap In Karnataka

Karnataka Vidhansabha Chunav 2023: The poll-bound Karnataka which is home to the 'Silicon Valley of India' is witnessing the same-old style of politics based on castes and religions. While just before the announcement of the poll schedule, the ruling BJP quashed the 4% OBC reservation given to Muslims moving the quota within the 10 per cent Economically Weaker Section (EWS) category, the Congress was quick to fall into the saffron party's narrative and promised to not only restore the said quota but also pledged to scrap various reservation quotas announced by the ruling BJP if voted to power. 

'4% Muslim Reservation Row'

The BJP's move was challenged in the Supreme Court and a stay order was issued, but when asked during an interview, Union Home Minister Amit Shah termed the 4% OBC reservation for Muslims as unconstitutional. "The BJP never believes in appeasement. So, it decided to change the reservation," Shah said strongly defending the decision. 

On the other hand, Congress state president DK Shivakumar said that many reservations provided by the BJP are against the law, constitution and the interests of the communities. The reservation in the state has gone up to 56 per cent and let the BJP government give reservations for both the communities by extending the limit. The Congress firmly stands with minorities and we want Muslim reservations to be intact, he maintained.

The reservation move by Chief Minister BS Bommai has led to a war of words between the BJP and Congress. While the BJP is hoping to polarize Hindu votes by scrapping the 4 per cent reservations for Muslims, the Congress appears to have fallen into the polarization trap. This may be one of the reasons that Amit Shah defended the move in his public rallies. 

Vokaligga and Lingayata Vote Bank And Seat Equation

In Karnataka, the Lingayatas and Vokkaligas are key to any party's poll victory. According to many estimates, the Lingayata community constitutes 17 per cent of Karnataka’s population while Vokkaligas are estimated to be around 15 per cent, Muslims 13 per cent, Brahmins three per cent, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) 35 per cent and the Scheduled Castes (SCs) & Scheduled Tribes (STs) around 18 per cent. On most occasions,  Lingayatas and Vokkaligas have voted unitedly and that was reflected in the results as well. Of the 224 assembly constituencies of Karnataka, around Lingayatas affect the results of around 100 constituencies while Vokaliggas have a significant presence in around 80 constituencies and they are dominant in 44 of these constituencies. 

Prominent Faces In BJP and Congress

While the BJP has the support of one of the tallest Lingayata leaders - BS Yediyurappa, two prominent leaders - Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi have defected to Congress after the denial of tickets. On the other hand, BJP has fielded strong Vokaligga leaders against Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar. While Siddaramaiah will face V Somanna in Varuna, DK Shivakumar will be up against R Ashok in Kanakapura.