Monsoon forecast in India can be better predicted now

New Delhi: Researchers have devised a new tool that can effectively predict the onset and demise of monsoon in India.

The new method uses rainfall rates to mark the span of the monsoon at any given location throughout the affected region.

"Current weather forecasting and monitoring protocols focus attention on monsoon onset at one location specifically the state of Kerala in the southwest corner of the country and extrapolate for the rest of the region," said lead investigator Vasu Misra, Associate Professor of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.

"We have gone down to specific locations, we've covered the whole country, and we've objectively defined the onset and demise dates for any given year," Misra added.

With this methodology, a question that has baffled meteorologists for decades finally can have a simple, actionable answer.

"You don't need complicated definitions," Misra said.

"Now we completely base the definition on rainfall, and it hasn't failed," Misra added.

The lack of a clear, granular and objective benchmark for monsoon onset and demise for all areas of the country has been a longtime source of anxiety for the Indian people.

In some parts of the country, the torrents of rain that characterise monsoon season account for more than 90 per cent of the total annual precipitation. 

Consequently, many rhythms of Indian political and agricultural life can be destabilised by dubious or false claims of monsoon onset.

(With IANS inputs)