Will RBI Cut Repo Rates Today? All Eyes On Monetary Policy Decision

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank on Friday morning will announce the decision on interest rate after the conclusion of the three-day monetary policy panel meeting, amid high inflation and weak GDP growth numbers.

Experts are of the view that the central bank is likely to opt for status quo on the short-term lending rate (repo), and will possibly tinker with cash reserve ratio (CRR) keeping in mind the mixed economic trends.

"Coming up: Monetary Policy Statement by #RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta on December 06, 2024, at 10:00 am," the Reserve Bank announced on social media platform 'X'.

Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) started its meeting to decide on the next set of bi-monthly monetary policy on Wednesday.

Das is chairing the last MPC meeting of his current term which ends on December 10.

The Reserve Bank has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023.

It last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then it has held the rate at the same level.

The government has tasked the RBI to ensure consumer price index (CPI) based inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on the either side.

In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

The MPC members are: Nagesh Kumar, Director and Chief Executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, New Delhi; Saugata Bhattacharya, Economist; Ram Singh, Director, Delhi School of Economics; Rajiv Ranjan, Executive Director, RBI; Michael Debabrata Patra, Deputy Governor, RBI; and Shaktikanta Das, Governor, RBI.

Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director and Chief Economist, Acuitè Ratings, said the economic outlook is marked by uncertainty on growth and a caution on the inflationary front.

A CRR cut would inject liquidity into the banking system, providing a cushion for economic activity without directly affecting the repo rate. Between December 2024 and February 2025, there is a significant likelihood of a 50-bps cut in CRR, bringing it to 4 per cent from 4.5 per cent, Chowdhury said.

Retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices.

Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month.

Retail inflation trended below the RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent since September last year. It was at 6.83 per cent in August 2023.

A research report on RBI Preview by Emkay Global Financial Services said the massive GDP undershoot has meant that the policy trade-offs have become even more acute as the economy looks to be in a stagflationary state.

"Even as the RBI's growth/inflation forecast will see significant downward/upward revisions, an immediate rate cut may not be easy for the MPC to justify, especially as their commentary has been assertive on durable disinflation being the primary mandate," it said.

India's economic growth slowed to near two-year low of 5.4 per cent in the July-September quarter of this fiscal due to poor performance of manufacturing and mining sectors. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 8.1 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 fiscal.