As the race to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final intensifies, the spotlight is firmly on India and Australia. Both teams are alive in the race to reach the 2025 final, set to be held at the iconic Lord's Cricket Ground in June. However, if they finish with identical points, the question remains: Which team will qualify for the WTC 2025 final? Australia’s commanding 184-run victory over India in the Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) on December 30 has shifted the dynamics of the 2024-25 Border-Gavaskar Trophy. With a 2-1 lead in the series, Australia has not only reignited its hopes of winning the coveted Border-Gavaskar Trophy for the first time since the 2014-15 season but also strengthened its position to qualify for the WTC 2025 final.

For India, however, the loss marked their first defeat in 13 years on Boxing Day at the MCG, eliminating their chances of winning the series outright. Yet, the stakes remain high. A victory in the fifth and final Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG), starting January 3, 2025, would not only allow Rohit Sharma's men to retain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy but also keep their hopes of reaching the WTC final alive.

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India’s Path to the WTC Final

As of now, India sits with 114 points in the WTC 2023-25 cycle. A win in Sydney would propel their tally to 126 points, or 55.26% of the total available points (228). However, any result less than a win — whether a draw or loss — would end India's chances of qualifying for the WTC 2025 final.

Australia’s Position and Qualification Scenarios

Australia, on the other hand, has 118 points and can reach a maximum of 154 points, should they win the next three Tests. A victory in any of their remaining matches would guarantee Australia’s qualification for the final, regardless of the outcomes elsewhere. However, should India beat Australia in Sydney and Sri Lanka win their series against Australia 2-0 or 1-0, India would leapfrog Australia in the points table, clinching the final spot.

The Possibility of Identical Points

A scenario is emerging where both India and Australia could finish with identical points — 126 out of 228 — and 55.26% of available points. This would happen if India wins the Sydney Test and the Sri Lanka-Australia series in January-February ends in a 0-0 draw.

The Tie-Breaker: Series Wins and Away Points

In the case of identical points, the WTC rules stipulate that the team with more series wins will qualify. Both India and Australia have won three series each in the 2023-25 cycle, which means the next deciding factor will be the percentage of points earned in away matches. India has played Tests in the West Indies, South Africa, and Australia, amassing 56 points out of 108 available from these away tours. With a win rate of 51.85%, India’s away form has been solid, but they will need to push further if they wish to edge out Australia.

Australia, on the other hand, has played in England, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka, earning 60 points from 108 possible points. Their away win percentage stands slightly higher at 55.56%, giving them a marginal edge over India in this area.