Explained: How India Can Still Reach The Women's T20 WC Semis After Crushing Loss To New Zealand - Check Possible Scenarios

The Indian women’s cricket team faced a major setback in their 2024 Women’s T20 World Cup campaign after suffering an embarrassing defeat to New Zealand on Friday, October 4, at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium. The loss not only put India’s chances of reaching the semi-final in jeopardy but also ended New Zealand's 10-match losing streak in T20 Internationals.

India, led by Harmanpreet Kaur, now face an uphill battle in the so-called "group of death," where they still have to face defending champions Australia on October 13. Before that, the Women in Blue will take on Pakistan on October 6 and Sri Lanka on October 9, two crucial games that they must win to keep their semi-final hopes alive.

Current Scenario: India On The Edge

The crushing defeat to New Zealand has left India in a precarious position, making it critical for them to win all their remaining three group-stage matches. However, even with three wins, their qualification for the semi-final is not guaranteed, as it will also depend on the Net Run Rate (NRR) and the outcomes of other matches in the group.

With powerhouse Australia and resurgent New Zealand in the same group, India is facing stiff competition to make it to the top two spots required for qualification. As things stand, India must not only secure wins but also aim for big victories, especially against Pakistan and Sri Lanka, to boost their NRR, which took a significant hit after the New Zealand loss.

How Can India Qualify For The Semis?

India's path to the semi-final hinges on several factors:

Win All Three Remaining Matches

India must defeat Pakistan (October 6), Sri Lanka (October 9), and Australia (October 13). A loss in any of these matches would almost certainly eliminate India from contention.
Their chances of beating Australia are slim, given Australia's dominance in women's cricket. However, India can’t afford to focus solely on the Australia game; victories against Pakistan and Sri Lanka are crucial for staying alive in the tournament.

Boost Their Net Run Rate (NRR)

Even if India wins all three remaining matches, a superior NRR could be the deciding factor for qualification. After their heavy defeat to New Zealand, India’s NRR is likely to be negative, which makes it essential for them to win big, especially against Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Convincing wins will not only give India crucial points but also help improve their NRR, which could be decisive in case of a tie on points with other teams.

Hope for Favorable Results from Other Matches

India’s semi-final chances also depend on how New Zealand and Australia perform in the remaining group matches.

Scenario 1: If New Zealand win all their remaining games, including a victory over Australia, it will work in India’s favor. This would make Australia vulnerable to elimination if India manages to beat them in their encounter on October 13.

Scenario 2: If Australia beats New Zealand, India would need the White Ferns to lose to either Sri Lanka or Pakistan. A second loss for New Zealand would give India a better chance of qualifying, assuming they win their remaining matches.

Focusing on the Sri Lanka and Pakistan Matches

The upcoming matches against Pakistan and Sri Lanka will be crucial for India's campaign. Both teams are capable of causing upsets, and India cannot afford to take these matches lightly. Winning these encounters by significant margins will be key to keeping their semi-final hopes alive.

What Happens If India Loses Another Match?

If India loses to either Pakistan or Sri Lanka, their semi-final hopes will be over, as it would be nearly impossible to recover from two group-stage losses in such a competitive group. A defeat to either of these teams would also make it difficult to catch up on NRR, leaving no room for a comeback.

Moreover, a loss to Australia on October 13, while not the end of their campaign, would significantly reduce their chances, making it vital to win against both Pakistan and Sri Lanka in dominating fashion.

India’s Quest for Their First-Ever Women’s T20 World Cup Title

India entered the 2024 Women’s T20 World Cup with hopes of claiming their first-ever title. Having reached the semi-final stage in each of the last three editions, they were hoping to go one step further this time. India made it to the final in 2020, only to lose to Australia, and in 2018 and 2023, they fell short in the semi-finals.

However, their chances of reaching the knockouts this time around have been dented by their loss to New Zealand, putting added pressure on the Harmanpreet Kaur-led side to deliver in the remaining matches.

India's campaign is now in survival mode, with no room for error in their remaining three matches. Their path to the semi-final is challenging, but not impossible. They must focus on winning every match, boosting their NRR, and hoping for favorable results from other games.