UP Elections 2017: Can Akhilesh-led Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance defeat BJP, BSP in UP?

Among the five poll-bound states, the outcome of the electoral battle is most keenly awaited in Uttar Pradesh - one of the country’s most politically crucial states. This is true also because the outcome of the assembly polls in UP will certainly have a direct bearing on the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and whichever party or political formation gets to power in Lucknow will have an added advantage in the General Elections.

But what has made the “battle for UP” more interesting is the bitter power tussle in the state’s ruling Samajwadi Party, which has virtually pushed it to the brink of a split. What initially appeared to be a battle for one-upmanship between nephew (Akhilesh) and his influential uncle (Shivpal), eventually became a full-scale war for control over the Samajwadi Party between the workaholic young Chief Minister and his father and party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav.

However, some claim that the bitter feud in the Samajwadi Party was all scripted by Mulayam to establish Akhilesh as his unopposed heir apparent and give SP a much-needed image makeover - from being a party of ‘bahubalis’ to a party promising development and optimism.

With the Election Commission declaring Akhilesh as the leader of the Samajwadi Party and authorizing him to use the party symbol ‘cycle’ for electoral purpose, the young UP CM has clearly consolidated his grip over the party and shown the doors to his detractors, especially uncle Shivpal, ‘outsider’ Amar Singh and a ‘constant irritant’ Azam Khan.

Even if the assertions about the ‘staged’ family feud are true by any chance, then Mulayam – for the veteran politician he is – has undeniably managed to scuttle the anti-incumbency factor facing the Samajwadi Party and brought his son Akhilesh back into the game again.

Inarguably, the entire pre-poll scenario has changed in Uttar Pradesh after a desperate Congress announced its decision to contest the upcoming assembly polls in alliance with the Akhilesh-led Samajwadi Party, ensuring a fierce multi-cornered contest between three major players - the SP+Congress combine, BJP and BSP led by Mayawati.

Here are some factors which will determine if the Akhilesh Yadav-led alliance of Samajwadi Party and Congress will win the popular mandate in UP:-

'Tipu' - the SP poster-boy: Contrary to the ‘bahubali’ image of the old guard of his party, the young CM is seen as a dynamic and pro-development leader who appears to be determined in transforming Uttar Pradesh into ‘Uttam Pradesh’. Having checkmated his rivals – Shivpal, Amar Singh and even Mulayam in the bitter family turf war – Akhilesh has established himself as a decisive leader who is capable of taking tough decisions and making SP a national level party - a dream nurtured by his father too.

For his clean image, his dynamism, his unquestionable respect for his father, Akhilesh is a refreshing change for many who see him as someone who goes about his job quite seriously, knows the pulse of his electorate and is hugely popular among the young generation. There is hardly any doubt why Akhilesh, whose main poll plan is development, has dominated various opinion polls as the top choice for the chief minister’s job. However, the biggest litmus test for Akhilesh Yadav will be to see if he can convert his positive image into votes in 2017.

Infighting: The SP faction opposed to Akhilesh will also try to win maximum seats so as to weaken his grip on the party. Besides, Akhilesh will also have the disadvantage of losing the elderly voters sympathetic to his father Mulayam in traditional pocket boroughs of Etawah, Mainpuri and Kannauj. With several top SP leaders including Ambika Chaudhary, a confidant of SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, switching sides to other parties will also make things difficult for Akhilesh.

Populist SP manifesto: With an eye on development, Akhilesh riding on the crest of "kaam bolta hai" (work speaks) slogan, announced several populist schemes in the party manifesto which prioritise the development of the state. The manifesto announced the distribution of laptops, Kanya Vidya Dhan, Samajwadi Pension, laying of Purvanchal Expressway and establishing Janeshwar Mishra model villages besides improving helplines for police and women. A highlight of the manifesto was Samajwadi Kisan Kosh for farmers to purchase seeds and fertilisers, perhaps to match the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Bima Yojana. The Chief Minister, in his new role as the Samajwadi Party national president, has directed all candidates to prepare a road map for development of their respective Assembly constituencies.

SP-Congress friendship: The SP-Congress alliance will surely be a game changer in the upcoming battle for UP. Both Akhilesh-led Samajwadi Party and Congress have their own reasons for entering into a political matrimony, at least in UP, if future talks regarding a ‘Mahagathbandhan’ or a ‘Grand Alliance’- same on the lines of Bihar - fail to materialise. Besides the chemistry between the young generation bosses of the two parties, it is the Congress, more than Akhilesh, which needed the alliance to make a comeback and end nearly two decades of its political drought in UP. Congress’ desperation for an alliance with a sell-able young CM can be understood from the fact that it declared its readiness to contest polls under Akhilesh shortly after the latter got a favourable ruling from the poll panel. Call it a politics of compulsion or convenience, it is the same Congress party which had coined the slogan ‘27 Saal, UP Behaal’ to accuse the Samajwadi Party of encouraging ‘goondaraj’ and pushing the state backwards. By aligning with Akhilesh, the Congress led by Rahul Gandhi actually wants to weaken BJP before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls by not letting it win the most politically crucial state in India.

Division of votes: In states like UP and Bihar where caste is an important factor, the division of votes, especially of Muslim and Dalits, can play a key role in determining the final outcome of the electoral process. In UP, a lot will depend on this - which party or alliance manages to win or divide the Muslim and Dalit votes. But undeniably, the coming together of SP and Congress would mean lesser division of Dalit and Muslim votes. With Muslims losing their faith in ‘Maulana Mulayam’, there is a high probability that minorities will be more inclined towards his son Akhilesh during the polls. But, mafia don-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari's Quami Ekta Dal (QED) finally joining hands with Mayawati's BSP, will also drive Muslims away from the SP-Congress alliance in the eastern Uttar Pradesh. Despite criminal antecedents, Ansari's family is held in high esteem in some parts of eastern UP and has a considerable sway over some dozen odd assembly seats in Mau, Azamgarh, Varanasi and Ghazipur districts that have a sizeable Muslim population.

For Dalit votes, the SP-Congress combine will have to fight with BJP and BSP which still enjoys a massive support from the backward community. In a bid to counter Akhilesh and BSP, the Amit Shah-led BJP is too keeping its sight on the decisive Dalit votes. In 2012, BSP's Dalit vote base declined by nearly 23 percentage points and during the 2014 Lok Sabha it further went down by more than 35 percent. Riding on the ‘Narendra Modi wave’, the BJP made a dent in BSP’s core Jatav votes, which too went down by 16 percent. With Sheila Dikshit as its CM nominee till recently, the Congress party’s poll campaign has so far focused on the upper caste votes, but after aligning with SP it will, too, go all out to woo Dalit voters.

Campaigning by Priyanka, Dimple: Congress chief Sonia Gandhi's daughter Priyanka Vadra is set to play a key role in the crucial assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh after she successfully negotiated an electoral alliance with the ruling Samajwadi Party. This has also put to rest months of intense speculations about Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's formal entry into politics. Like Akhilesh and Rahul, the chemistry between Priyanka and UP CM's wife Dimple Yadav is equally good too, and the possibility of two strong women actually sharing the dais and campaigning for the alliance can be a pleasant sight for voters making things easier for both SP and Congress.

Tackling BJP, Mayawati: Led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP poses the biggest challenge to the SP-Congress alliance led by Akhilesh. Riding on the ‘Modi wave’, the saffron party bagged 71 of the 80 parliamentary seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It would like to win the UP before going into the 2019 General Elections for obvious reasons. In the case of no alliance with Congress, countering the rising power of the BJP would have been difficult for Akhilesh in Uttar Pradesh. But with Samajwadi Party and Congress entering into an alliance with the former contesting on 298 odd seats and the latter on nearly 105 seats, the combine is confident of winning over 300 seats in the final tally. If so happens, this can complicate the game for both BJP and BSP forcing them to even think of a post-poll alliance in case of a hung assembly.

Demonetisation: The success of the Narendra Modi government’s unprecedented and bold decision to ban old currency notes of high denomination, which has triggered a severe backlash from the Opposition parties but evoked enormous support from the masses, will be put to test in the assembly polls in Punjab and UP. Contrary to various opinion polls which have indicated that BJP will gain from its demonetisation move, results of the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab will actually prove whether it was a “gamble” or a “game changer”.

Besides, the BJP will also like to seek votes for allowing the Indian Army to conduct surgical strikes along the Line of Control which eliminated Pakistan supported terrorist camps running in PoK. Playing its 'Hindutva' card once again, the saffron party has also announced the setting up of a Ram Museum in Ayodhya.

For Akhilesh, it will be a win-win situation whether his alliance wins or loses the elections. A victory in 2017 will cement his status as a 'kingmaker' in 2019. If he fails to win the popular mandate for the second time, he will still be the national president of the Samajwadi Party with none other than 'Netaji' himself backing him from behind.