Punjab Elections 2017: Can BJP-SAD repeat their 2012 electoral victory?

When the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiromani Akali Dal won the municipal polls in Chandigarh last year, observers wondered if it was a precursor to the duo’s big win in Punjab Assembly Elections 2017. The results were a surprise for those who had thought that 10 years of incumbency and the simmering anger against corruption and drug nexus have put the BJP-SAD government in a tight spot. However, the alliance proved its detractors wrong.

Due to the emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party, the elections in Punjab have turned out to be a three-horse race. The previous elections in the state used to be a straight contest between the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP) combine and the Congress. However, the political scenario in Punjab has changed. And to make things complicated for the ruling SAD-BJP combine, the Congress and the AAP have fielded strong candidates against the Badals.

The most interesting Assembly seat to look out for would be Lambi, which has been Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal’s constituency since 1997. Punjab Congress president and chief ministerial candidate Amarinder Singh is giving a tough fight to Badal senior. Notably, Amarinder Singh, who turns 75 in March, has announced that this is the last election of his political life. To be on the safer side, the Congress candidate is also contesting from Patiala too.

The AAP has fielded Jarnail Singh to contest from the seat. Singh hogged the limelight in 2009 when he hurled a shoe at the then Union Home Minister P Chidambaram in Delhi.

From the Jalalabad Assembly seat, held by Sukhbir Badal, the AAP has fielded Lok Sabha MP from Sangrur, comedian-turned-politician Bhagwant Mann. Ravneet Singh Bittu has been fielded by the Congress, which has made the contest with Badal junior even more interesting.

In a bid to woo voters, the SAD has fielded General JJ Singh, the first Sikh chief of the Indian Army from Patiala, to take on Congress’ Captain Amarinder Singh.

By fielding strong candidates, both the Congress and AAP are trying to corner the Badals on their home turf.

This time, the BJP will contest polls in Punjab without one of its most popular faces - Navjot Singh Sidhu. The cricketer-turned-politician has joined Congress after unsuccessful negotiations with the Aam Aadmi Party.

Last year, the AAP appeared to be the front-runner in Punjab; later, the Congress, thanks to the popularity of Captain Singh, seemed to be winning the polls. The stars for SAD-BJP appear not be shining bright enough.

In 2012, the SAD-BJP alliance managed to retain power in Punjab but lost their vote share. At that time, the Congress gained in terms of vote percentage. The SAD-BJP combine won an absolute majority in the 117-member Punjab Assembly by grabbing 68 seats (SAD-56, BJP-12) as against 67 seats (SAD-48, BJP-19) in 2007.

In 2014, the SAD-BJP alliance won six Lok Sabha seats despite strong anti-incumbency.

Political pundits suggest that people who voted for AAP in the Lok Sabha elections will surely swing 8-9 percent vote share in the favour of SAD-BJP combine.

The Badals are being hailed by the voters of Punjab for their populist schemes such as ‘Atta-Dal’, for ensuring uninterrupted power and water, good roads, new airports, and flyovers.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off campaigning in poll-bound Punjab by talking about the Indian Army's deep connect with the state. He mentioned surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir with which he thought people of Punjab would naturally connect with.

On March 11, it will be clear whether the SAD-BJP alliance will be able to make Congress a `thing of a past`?