Punjab Assembly elections 2017: With Sidhu-Amarinder duo, can Congress win this poll battle? Here's detailed analysis

Chandigarh: The electoral battle lines are drawn in Punjab! 

However, this time, the battle lines are not familiar as elections to the 117-member Punjab Assembly promises to be three-way fight between the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine, Congress and the new entrant AAP. 

Out of all the five poll-bound states going to polls between February 4 to March, Punjab is the only state where Congress has chances of emerging as a winner without forging any alliance with any party.

Most of the political pundits have predicted that Congress may make a grand comeback in Punjab where 117 seats are at stake. The Assembly polls are crucial for Congress' revival.

Here are the reasons why a down-and-out Congress may finally find a reason to cheer on March 11 when it wins back Punjab:-

Sidhu factor

The Congress is hoping that the entry of Navjot Singh Sidhu in the party will improve its chances of victory. 

Sidhu could give Congress enough electoral power to cross the half-way mark in Punjab as he is a star campaigner and knows how to woo voters through his amazing oratory skills.

Undoubtedly, Sidhu has a wide appeal across Punjab. Sidhu's popularity in Punjab can be understood by results of 2014 Lok Sabha elections from Amritsar seat. Sidhu vacated the seat for BJP veteran Arun Jaitley but the latter lost the election. Several media reports claim that Jaitley faced defeat as Sidhu refused to back him and hence people of Amritsar rejected him.

Congress has nominated cricketer-turned-politician Sidhu as its candidate from Amritsar East.

Anti-incumbency 

The BJP-Akali Dal combine has been in the office for the past two terms. 

A strong anti-incumbency sentiment is clear against SAD-BJP since 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when the alliance saw a huge negative vote swing in Punjab. The alliance won only six of 13 Lok Sabha seats despite the presence of a strong 'Modi wave' across the nation.

Political experts predict that anti-incumbency factor will work in favour of Congress in the assembly polls.

Also, SAD leaders joining Congress ahead of the Punjab assembly elections has given a boost to Congress.

National political adviser of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) Ranjit Singh Nikra has also joined the Congress.

Drug menace

It goes without saying that drug menace is one of the most important poll issues this time.

The anger against drug mafia in the BJP-SAD rule has given an edge to Congress in the state electoral battle.

However, both Congress and AAP are claiming that they will weed out corruption and drugs from Punjab if voted to power. Amarinder Singh has went onto claim that he knows how the drug nexus operates and who all are behind it.

Amarinder says, "If Congress comes to power, in four weeks he will break the drug nexus; we know who does it, it is a question of government willing to do it.”

Amarinder as CM face

Congress is leaving no stone unturned to cash in on the popularity of Captain Amarinder Singh. Now, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi too has openly declared the Captain as the party's man to lead the state.

74-year-old Amarinder is fighting his last election. He will be the next Chief Minister, if the party forms government in Punjab.

Setting at rest speculation, Rahul Gandhi has announced that Punjab Congress chief Amarinder Singh will be the party's chief ministerial face in the high-stakes Assembly polls.

Rahul, addressing the rally in the pocket-borough of Punjab minister Bikram Singh Majithia, said Amarinder alone can change Punjab and set it right along with the support of the people of the state and there is no other way out.

Lambi, a pocket borough of chief minister Parkash Singh Badal, is set to witness a keen battle with Punjab Congress chief Amarinder Singh challenging the Akali patriarch and AAP's Jarnail Singh making in roads into traditional votes of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).

Ruling SAD and AAP have been mocking Congress, asking why the party was not declaring Amarinder as its chief ministerial candidate.

Political experts say that Amarinder as a CM face is like a shot in the arm for Congress in Punjab elections. 

Also, most of the opinion polls and surveys have shown Amarinder Singh as the top choice for Punjab CM.

In a Punjab poll survey conducted recently, over 34 per cent of the respondents said they want Amarinder Singh as their next CM.

In contrast, incumbent Parkash Singh Badal was favoured by just 22 per cent of those surveyed.

Poll survey prediction

According to a prediction by CNN-News18's Mega Poll of Polls, Congress is likely to get maximum seats in Punjab.

The grand old party may end up quite close to majority with 58 seats. 

2012 Punjab elections

Let's have a look at vote share and seats bagged by various parties in 2012 Punjab assembly elections

- Congress: 46 seats with 40.09% vote share

- SAD: 56 seats with 34.72% vote share

- BJP: 12 seats with 7.18% vote share

- Independent candidates: 3 seats with 6.75% vote share

2017 elections

A total of 1,146 candidates are in the fray for Punjab Assembly polls which is set to witness three-cornered contest between SAD-BJP, Congress and new entrant AAP.

Other political outfits in the fray include BSP, former AAP leader Sucha Singh Chottepur-led Apna Punjab Party, the Left comprising CPI and CPI(M), and SAD-Amritsar.

The Assembly election in Punjab is also considered a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity post demonetisation.

SAD has fielded candidates in 94 seats while its ally BJP has nominated candidates in remaining 23 seats. Congress is contesting alone on all seats.

AAP, which is contesting Punjab polls for first time, has fielded its candidates in 112 seats, while its ally Lok Insaf Party, led by Ludhiana-based Bains brothers, have fielded its nominees in five seats.

Punjab assembly elections: Schedule

Punjab will vote in a single-phase election on February 4. 

The results will be out on March 11.