Manipur Assembly Elections 2017: Will Congress be able to retain power in blockade-hit state? Here's detailed analysis

Imphal: With Manipur going to polls in two phases on 4 and 8 March, the most important question doing the rounds is - Will Congress be able to retain power in the state?

With a population of just 26 lakhs and 60 Assembly seats, the state has seen the Congress government in power for the past 15 years with Okram Ibobi Singh in the chief ministerial role since 2002.

Congress, which is eyeing 4th term in the state, is under fire for doing politics of appeasement by creating the seven new districts.

Some of the political pundits say that Congress may win the elections in blockade-hit state as the grand old party divided the growing tribal unity, particularly between Kukis and Nagas, by upgrading Sadar Hills to a full-fledged district.

By doing this, Congress managed to reach out to the dominant Meitei (Manipuri) community by allegedly cashing in on the ethnic unrest.

However, Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave too.

On the other hand, BJP is leaving no stone unturned to do an Assam in Manipur.

Also, this time it might be a challenge for the Congress to retain its position due to the inroads made by the BJP in the state.

Several Congress leaders have joined the saffron party and political experts see this as a big shot in arm for the BJP as far as electoral battle is concerned.

Moreover, Manipur government’s recent decision to bifurcate several of the hill districts in the state is giving rise to widescale grievances, particularly among the tribes who fear the bifurcation would result in encroachment of their ancestral lands.

Some experts see Sadar Hills decision as Ibobi’s masterstroke.

For the past few months, Manipur witnessed huge turmoil due to economic blockades by the United Naga Council (UNC) as a mark of protest against the bifurcation of districts. These factors may also work in favour of BJP.

However, Congress tried to cash in on the blockade by accusing the Narendra Modi government of not doing enough in the state.

According to a poll survey, Congress will not be able to retain the power in the state. The poll survey has predicted that BJP will bag 31-35 out of 60 seats. And, Congress will only get 19-24 seats.

Experts say that people are quite satisfied with the development works done by Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh but still there are chances that Congress might face a tough challenge from BJP because Manipur has turned into a land of turmoil with a multiplicity of issues like economic blockades, frequent bandhs, militancy, fake encounters, Armed Forces Special Powers Act and territorial integrity among others.

Manipur is now clearly divided into two - plains and hills. Meiteis dominate the plains while Nagas rule the hills. Now, it is a big question that who will vote for whom or Manipur will emerge as a united state?

Also, other than Congress and BJP, Irom Sharmila is the face to look out for after she broke her 16-year long fast against the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in Manipur.

It's a wait-and-watch show; only time will tell that whether Congress will retain power or BJP will turn the state saffron as it did in Assam, when the results will out on March 11.

Manipur Assembly Elections

The elections for the 60-member Manipur assembly will held in two phases, March 4 (38 constituencies) and March 8 (22 seats).

The results will be out on March 11.

Formation of new districts in the state, about 80 days old economic blockade by the United Naga Council (UNC) on National Highway and territorial integrity of the state in view of the ongoing talks between the Centre and insurgent naga group NSCN (IM) are the issues which will dominate the election.

Around 20,000 central security personnel have been sent to the northeastern state keeping in view the security situation in the wake of violence following the economic blockade imposed by the Union Naga Council (UNC) on the National Highways since November 1.

The UNC imposed the economic blockade on NH-2 (Imphal-Dimapur) and NH-37 (Imphal-Jiribam) that serve as lifelines for the landlocked Manipur.